Letter 56: Is The Bull Market Over?

Will Bitcoin Make a New All Time High in 2025?

The question on everyone's mind lately seems to be whether the bull market is over or not. It is, quite literally, the trillion dollar question. I obviously can't tell you what's going to happen with any real certainty (and you should ignore and run from anyone who proclaims to be able to), but I can give you my best guess and, more importantly, explain how I try to think about questions like this.

First we need to talk a bit about information flows and market predictions in general.

When it comes to predicting the market you will find people basically fall into one of five different categories:

1. Those who have no idea, and say they have no idea

2. Those who have no idea, but think they do, and speak with certainty

3. Those who have some idea, and say as much, and speak with caution

4. Those who have some idea, and speak with certainty

5. Those who know for sure what's going to happen

You should always discount and ignore anyone who is in #2 or #4. A lot of the time these people are trying to get you to buy something (even if it's only to follow them on social media).

These type of people are especially dangerous because there will always be some who get lucky and what they say will happen is exactly what does happen. They’ll then often regularly bring up past predictions that worked out well, while ignoring all the ones that didn’t. These are the same ones with YouTube thumbnails saying “Bitcoin WILL hit $250k this year!!!” and “THE NEXT 100x GEM”, and so on.

You must ignore them. Ignore ignore ignore.

The only people who exist in #5 are people with insider information, so it's not something us mere mortals can rely on — especially when we're talking about trillion dollar assets.

So we're left with #1 and #3. People who self admittedly have no idea and say as much: you can't glean anything from them (but you at least won't be led astray), and then those who genuinely have some idea based on years of experience, some unusual insight into the markets, technical analysis, and/or other reasons.

As a general rule, if you are optimizing for alpha / actionable information, you should curate your timeline and information flow to be primarily people in the #3 category.

“But Zeneca, why are you concerned with what other people think, can’t you do your own research and come to your own conclusions?”

Well yes and no. For some things, I do this: NFT projects, smaller alt coins, ecosystem plays (like Base), new narratives like AI agents, etc... I do my own research and think I can find an edge (though I still combine this with the thoughts of others). For something is significant as Bitcoin? I lean heavily on the thoughts of experts.

For I am not an expert in macro economics. I am not an expert in geopolitics. I am not an expert in market cycle theory, fundamental analysis, technical analysis… or any of these other categories that generally lend people to think they have some idea what they’re talking about.

So what do I do? I look to people that I think are experts (those in category #3), consume their content, and use that in conjunction with my own thoughts and theories to make my best guess for what is going to happen.

Take in enough information and data points from enough sources, and you begin to get a bit of a sense for things. It’s still largely guessing, but it’s now at least educated guessing. Educated guessing that is based on probabilistic thinking, a skill I learned during my many years playing poker professionally.

As a poker player, I learned to think in terms of odds and probabilities. I think this is generally an excellent approach to thinking about crypto, markets, and, well, literally anything in life (except maybe love; nobody wants a partner who thinks there's a 94% chance they love them).

This topic really deserves an entire post dedicated to it, but the tldr version of thinking in probabilities is that you mentally or even subconsciously assign a percentage chance to all the various outcomes of a situation, and then use the aggregate of that to come to a conclusion.

So what chance do I think the bull market is over?